I believe that Paul Krugman in his latest Op Ed for the NY Times is endangering his reputation as someone whose opinion is worthy of note. Professor Krugman is an Economist, and while a self confessed liberal thinker, is a diligent researcher when it comes to his chosen subject. It is disappointing then, when he chooses to write on the equally complex subject of Global Warming, that he chooses to abandon said diligent research and instead takes the easy way out by parroting the alarmist rhetoric of (Human caused) Climate Change divas such as James Hansen.
When I see Krugman’s latest article talking about “the drowning of Florida by rising sea levels” and corn price records caused by the Midwestern drought (surely bio-fuel production is the cause of this one – as an economist he should know this) I know he has not done his homework.
A study by Dr Daniel Sarewitz has uncovered a ‘trend towards the pervasive over-selection and over-reporting of false positive results’. This is not the first time such evidence has been published. See ‘Why Most Published Research Findings Are False’ (J. P. A. Ioannidis PLoS Med. 2, e124; 2005).
‘How can we explain such pervasive bias? Like a magnetic field that pulls iron filings into alignment, a powerful cultural belief is aligning multiple sources of scientific bias in the same direction. The belief is that progress in science means the continual production of positive findings. All involved benefit from positive results, and from the appearance of progress. Scientists are rewarded both intellectually and professionally, science administrators are empowered and the public desire for a better world is answered. The lack of incentives to report negative results, replicate experiments or recognize inconsistencies, ambiguities and uncertainties is widely appreciated — but the necessary cultural change is incredibly difficult to achieve.’
Journal of Nature
It makes one despair!
Paul Ehrlich is at it again. In the 1960s he prophesied a new ice age, famines of biblical proportions and that by 1984 “the United States will quite literally be dying of thirst”. Now he wants the world to reduce its population voluntarily from 7 billion to 1.5 billion souls. Why? Because otherwise we will face ‘catastrophic or slow motion [disasters]’ Me thinks the self appointed ‘population expert’cries wolf.
The world produces enough food to feed 12 billion. Half of that either rots before it reaches the dinner table or is thrown away which is to all our shame. No one should go to bed hungry – but 1.5 billion of us do. Let’s divert some of the billions wasted on global warming research (see earlier posts) to find better methods of food distribution and storage. Now that is something I wouldn’t mind spending taxes on.
I love it when someone actually does an experiment, instead of using some subjective computer model.
Chinese scientists has increased crop yields by between 3 and 6% by increasing the temperature at which they grow grain.
Today’s Science results:
Scientific Method 1 – Computer Models 0
Let’s hear it for the Scientific Method.
James Lovelock, one of the world’s leading exponents of the theory of manmade Climate Change, has admitted in a telephone interview with Ian Johnston of msnbc.com that he got it wrong. As recently as 2006 Lovelock wrote “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
All credit to him that he has come out and is attempting to put the record straight. Let’s hope that this admission brings a little sanity back to the debate. Can we now please have some reasoned discussion on the subject and abandon the mantra of “The Science Is Settled.” Clearly it is not.
“the IPCC argues that feedbacks from increased water evaporation will lead to enhanced warming. This is not observed in those regions most effected by water vapour. In fact the opposite seems to be the case implying negative feedback.” http://clivebest.com/blog/
Clive Best – Physicist http://clivebest.com/blog/?page_id=2
When US Energy Secretary Steven Chu gave Solar Trust (a solar energy company) a $2.1 billion conditional loan guarantee, he boasted that it would prove that ‘when we rev up the great American innovation machine, we can out-compete any other nation’. Does the demise of Solar Trust then prove that America can’t? Let’s hope not.